When Prime Minister Harold Macmillan was asked what the greatest challenge for a statesman was, he replied: 'Events, dear boy, events'. It's a famous phrase but at time when people are making predictions for 2023 its worth reconsidering.🧵
Unpredictable things happen, often upending everything. Think of the Sep 11 attacks in 2001. The credit crunch in 2008. Trump and Brexit in 2016, #MeToo in 2017, Covid in 2020, the Russian invasion and Tory implosion last year.
In fact one thing we *can* predict is that the big stories and events of 2023 aren't likely to be anything we can see currently.
One implication for those who work around politics is that you can't be too busy. If you fill up your schedule there's no room for the next big unpredictable thing.
Also, while you can try and find moments to lead the conversation, most of what you'll be doing is reacting. Get good at it.
Another lesson is that politicians seeking success have to understand the importance of waiting. I think of all the young Tory MPs quitting, or the Labour MPs like Chuka Umunna who lost patience with Labour under Corbyn and blew up their careers trying to start a breakaway party.
Part of the art of politics is putting yourself in the best position possible and then having the patience and faith to wait until the circumstances turn in your favour. People entering politics should understand this better.
In such an unpredictable environment, your best strategy is often what @Dannythefink once called the Travolta Micawber strategy – staying alive and hoping something will turn up.
Politics is one unpredictable event after another —good and bad. I remember a Labour supporting friend telling me, *promising* me, two years ago there would never be a Labour gov without electoral reform. And yet…
The lesson is: if you're down you might soon be up (take heart despairing Tories), and vice-versa (be cautious optimistic Labour supporters). All you can do as 2023 begins is understand this reality and get ready to do the best you can.
Originally tweeted by Brendan Miller (@brenkjm) on December 31, 2022.