I know Elon musk has a lot of haters right now but what is the past few years has actually been a GENIUS political strategy that will save the planet? 🧵
Something unique about climate change is how much support is needed to make progress. A large majority of people need to change their behaviour.
Often in a democracy you don't need a majority. Just having more votes than others (a "plurality" vs a majority) if enough to pass climate laws. But without mass support you get backlash — the gilets jaunes protests against fuel taxes in 2018 for example.
For success on climate change, a large *majority* of people need to change how they travel, eat, get energy and so on, to make a difference.
The problem is most people are not @GretaThunberg. They have other priorities, problems and many (me?) are just not that altruistic or enlightened. Only a minority will ever be "do-gooding" enough to change their behaviour. And a minority is not enough.
This is why a big part of the answer on climate is technology. It's only when carbon-free cars, planes, meat, etc are cheaper and better will you see the majority changing their behaviour.
So when Musk introduced the Tesla and it was *cool*, winning car awards and hype, and prodding the industry to shift towards electric, it was as a huge climate success.
But after those initial successes there remained a problem…
Electric vehicles have a huge image problem politically, especially in the USA, the world's biggest economy. A recent poll found Democrats more than twice as likely as Republicans to consider purchasing an electric vehicle (58% vs. 23%).
I mean look at this anti-Democract ad that ran in the recent midterms. "We want tranks run on American energy!" while oil pumps work away in the background.
But if it's still pretty bad, the way electric vehicles are associated with Democrats used to be even worse.
In fact, in 2018 two political scientists (@HetheringtonUNC & @jonweiler) wrote a book on how the answer to the question "Prius or pickup?" was enough to work out if you were Democrat or Republican.
This is why it was so significant when, in 2019, Musk released an electric vehicle _pickup truck_, one that was big, brash, marketed with macho "strength-tests" and generally the opposite of an eco-conscious Prius.
And since then there's been a steady stream of rightwing signalling from Musk. Love for Canadian truckers, guns on the bedside table, "prosecute/Fauci" etc
And while Republican hostility to electric vehicles remains, it has shifted in a positive direction. Today Republicans are slightly *more* likely to trust the Tesla brand, 27% compared to 25% among Democrats.
Note this is the kind of strategy politicians rarely achieve. For example Blair & Clinton were praised for their presentation of leftwing politics and thus win power. But as well as presentation they also shifted rightward in the substance of their politics.
But Musk hasn't shifted anything that matters. The battery inside a Tesla is still 100% electric.
Now, I don't know if this is all on purpose – maybe that gives @elonmusk too much credit. But nevertheless if he succeeds in making electric vehicles popular with Republicans, it will be a huge success (another one) in the fight against climate change.
Originally tweeted by Brendan Miller (@brenkjm) on January 7, 2023.